Shift To Range of Probable Outcomes

Every opinion is a form of prediction. But everyone has many opinions, which creates bad signal to noise ration and thus poor track record. Trends are predictions. But all trends end. Further, given the impact from other trends, the number of variables guarantee there is more than one possible outcome.

Assuming the objective is to have better understanding of what is ahead, then you need to find a way to forecast a range of probable outcomes. To do that you need you realize change happens in both linear and nonlinear ways. That the rate of change is a system property. Thus, as a system ages the rate of change accelerates as it approaches the end of its lifespan.

My expertise is in how systems evolve, which enables forecasting of a finite number of probable system outcomes over time. On my Medium publication, A Passion to Evolve, there a number of articles you might find interesting. The best start point is longish but easy to comprehend primer called, Macroscopic Evolutionary Paradigm. As shorter article with examples is called, The Doc Asks — What Do U No?.

Absent a very nascent, stable, near-term trend, predictions are worse gambles than offered in casinos. If want to be confident your bet will pay off, you must first decide whether to go with red or black. Then iterate.

Btw, I am a member of the Long Now Foundation

Doc Huston