Predictions Are Fools Errand. Forecasting Outcome Probabilities Is Useful & Doable

The problem with a prediction is that it assume some trend and bets the ranch on a single outcome. Of course, the number of cross-cutting trends and variables generate sufficient complexity as to almost guarantee the prediction will be wrong beyond luck. Certainly, that was not how Yogi played the game.

There is, however, a way to discern a finite number of high probability outcomes by assessing a trend in the context of evolving nested systems. It is what is called evolving systems cartography and is my area of expertise.

On my Medium publication, A Passion to Evolve, there is a longish, but easily understandable primer and an application you might find interesting called, Macroscopic Evolutionary Paradigm

Doc Huston