News — At The Edge — 8/31
We have now reached the unreal land of OZ — military spending, faltering capitalism, tech monopolies, no campaign finance law, no identity ownership, amoral AI & ticks — and man behind the curtain has died.
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How global military spending hit a record high —
“$1.8 trillion in 2018 — the largest amount since the Cold War…[and] 75% higher than post-Cold War low in 1998….[increased] the United States (41%) and China (14%)…. Countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region have…upped their spending as China [did] ….
U.S. began increasing spending once again as the national security focus shifted from terrorism to the rise of China and resurgence of Russia….[But] Russia did not increase spending in 2018…
[The] destabilization of Ukraine, and election meddling…[also] push spending up in former Soviet states like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania.” https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/how-china-helped-drive-global-military-spending-to-a-record-highs.html
Corporate panic about capitalism could be a turning point —
“[Many] business executives have been joining this unlikely crusade to save capitalism from itself…[with] Business Roundtable, which represents the chief executives of 192 of the nation’s largest companies…declaring that making profits for shareholders isn’t a corporation’s sole responsibility…[rather] have a broader mission to serve customers, employees, suppliers and communities, too….
’Many Americans are struggling. Too often hard work is not rewarded’…[and] American Dream…‘fraying for many’ because of stagnant wages and income inequality….The system isn’t delivering….
[If] CEOs really feel the system is in trouble, they should reduce their pay and give more to their workers and communities….
[T]he larger political point: Corporate America fears the system is failing…[and] they must respond…or face a worsening political crisis that is already hobbling the country….
[History] teaches us that economic reform succeeds when it goes mainstream, and that’s what’s happening now….
’We are now seeing conflicts between populists…[increasing] as they did in the 1930s when the income and wealth gaps were comparably large…[along with] rising frustration with American politics…[and] social fragmentation’….
The ground is ready. Even the moguls know it’s time for change.”
Competition, not corporatism, is the answer to capitalism’s problems —
“ACROSS THE West, capitalism is not working [well]…[since] growth is sluggish, inequality is too high…environment is suffering…[politics] gridlocked or unstable….
[Some] think the answer is to call on big business to help fix economic and social problems to pre-empt attacks on big business….Younger staff want to work for firms that take a stand on the moral and political questions of the day….
However well-meaning, this new form of collective capitalism will end up doing more harm…[because] risks entrenching…unaccountable CEOs who lack legitimacy…[and] threat to long-term prosperity….
[With] the stagnation of the 1970s shareholder value took hold…and, in theory, thereby maximized efficiency. Unions declined….Judged by profits, it has triumphed…[up] from 5% of GDP in 1989 to 8% now….
Part of the attack is about…decline in business ethics, from bankers…bonuses and bail-outs…sale of billions of opioid pills to addicts. But the main complaint is that shareholder value produces bad economic outcomes…[from] short-term earnings to…exploiting staff, depressing wages and failing to pay for the catastrophic externalities they create, in particular pollution….Consumers often get a lousy deal and social mobility has sunk….
[Still] collective capitalism suffers from two pitfalls: a lack of accountability and a lack of dynamism….
- It is not clear how CEOs should know what ‘society’ wants from their companies…[and] dominated by large firms, so a small number of unrepresentative business leaders…[have] immense power to set goals for society that range far beyond the immediate interests of their company…
- Collective capitalism leans away from change….
[Way] to make capitalism work better for all is not to limit accountability and dynamism, but to enhance them both…[and] requires firms to adapt to society’s changing preferences…[and] broaden ownership…(directly or through funds)…heavily skewed towards the rich….
The ultimate beneficiaries of pension schemes and investment funds should be able to vote in company elections…[not] outsourced to a few barons in the asset-management industry.
Accountability works only if there is competition…[but] since the 1990s, consolidation has left two-thirds of industries in America more concentrated. The digital economy, meanwhile, seems to tend towards monopoly….[All] have abysmal reputations for customer service…[and] none is keen on lowering barriers to entry….
[A] healthy, competitive economy requires an effective government — to enforce antitrust rules, to stamp out today’s excessive lobbying and cronyism…[and] does not exist today” https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/08/22/what-companies-are-for
European officials draft radical plan to take on Trump and U.S. tech companies —
“[A]n aggressive 173-page plan…to set up a European Future Fund…[to] invest more than $100 billion in…high-potential European companies…competing head-on with the American and Chinese tech giants it has lagged….
Without U.K. influence, the EU is free to pursue the more interventionist economic policies France and Germany have long-favored…[and] ‘Enforcement Regulation’ if the Trump administration succeeds in its efforts to grind the World Trade Organization (WTO) to a halt…[causing] global commerce…[to] effectively be thrust back into the law of the jungle….
[The] new fund is the latest of several EU efforts to shape global technology markets…[that] include stringent data privacy laws…tens of billions of dollars in antitrust fines and tax recovery orders against American tech companies….
[EU] seeks more stringent measures to block Chinese companies from taking part…in Europe to penalize them for…[subsidies] from the government in Beijing…[because] potential to obliterate the existing innovation dynamics and industrial position of EU industry’….
[Also] regulations [mandating]…social networks and other online platforms have a ‘duty of care’ for what is published on their sites…[and] new transparency rules governing online political advertising.” https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/22/europe-plan-trump-tech-companies-1472326
Searching for Reality in Unreal Times —
“Flanked by…Secretary of the Interior…a former oil and gas lobbyist, and EPA head…a former coal lobbyist, Trump extolled his team’s stewardship of public lands…‘the cleanest air and…water,’ and its success in reducing carbon emissions.
In reality, Trump has opened up millions of acres to drilling and mining and sought to reverse multiple air- and water-pollution regulations…[as] carbon emissions [spiked]…3.4 percent last year, and…is withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate change agreement….
The speech was surreal…[with] polls showing Americans are…increasingly worried about the environment….
[So] how it is that we can all live in the same universe yet see reality so differently….
[The] evidence from neuroscience indicates that our perceptions are not direct representations of the external world. Rather our brains — each…unique — make guesses about reality based on the sensory signals….
Social media amplifies toxic misinformation….Cyberattacks on election machinery and voter-registration systems threaten…democracy itself.
Uncertainty in the world makes us all the more susceptible to such….weaponized narratives.” https://www.scientificamerican.com/interactive/truth-lies-uncertainty1/
Campaign finance enforcer sidelined ahead of 2020 by resignations-
“The federal agency regulating campaign finance has been rendered powerless heading into the 2020 election….
There are normally six FEC commissioners, but…[new] departure will bring the…board down to three…[yet] FEC regulations require four or more…to vote on enforcement actions, new regulations and other matters…including how to handle cybersecurity and foreign election interference…donor disclosure, coordination between candidates and outside groups….
[Trump] left one commissioner’s seat…vacant for2½ years. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/2020-campaign-finance-enforcement-resignations-1475596
Who gets to own your digital identity? —
“[A] verified digital identity is a crucial…in making any digital platform succeed…[and] is estimated that…1.5 billion people lack access to…banking services due to their inability to prove their identity….
Your digital identity consists of thousands of data points that make up a profile of who you are and your preferences…all over the internet, where Facebook owns our social identity, retailers own our shopping patterns, credit agencies hold our creditworthiness, Google knows what we have been curious [about]….
[All’s] analyzed in detail to predict our future behavior and monetize our digital identities…[though] we lack ownership of our own…fragmented digital identities…[and] proposes vulnerabilities for those third parties….
[With] 10 million new consumer credit files generated in the U.S. each year, synthetic identities can be very difficult to detect…[so] bank losses due to synthetic fraud are…somewhere between $1 billion and $2 billion each year….
Blockchain is often proposed…to solve all our digital identity needs,..[but] Facebook’s cryptocurrency, Libra…[could] further strengthen its position as a leading provider of a global digital identity solution….
A consolidated and verified digital identity would be beneficial to both users and providers of digital services…[but] allowing Facebook…to be the custodian…is a sinister trail for the future of both privacy and democracy….
Holy Grail of decentralized identity…a self-sovereign identity, has its weaknesses…moment someone forgets their password or pass away…[with] nobody to call and no Forgot Password button….
[Need] identity custodian that maintains a verified connection between your physical and digital self, ensures that no data is used without consent, monitors malicious behavior and provides user support in case of a lost key. This is far from an easy solution and should be provided by a regulated entity….
There is too much at stake…as shown numerous times through both data breaches…and manipulation of public opinion through social media.
No matter which technology or appointed custodian we deploy to solve this, our identities should belong to…people rather than one corporation or consortium of corporations that seek to exploit our data” https://techcrunch.com/2019/08/22/who-gets-to-own-your-digital-identity/
The risks of amoral AI —
“[AI] used to make decisions about lives, livelihoods and interactions…in ways that pose real risks to people…[because] developers make decisions and choose trade-offs that affect outcomes…[by] embedding ethical choices within the technology…without thinking about the downstream implications…not always obvious at the point the decisions are made….
A significant risk is that we advance the use of AI technology at the cost of reducing individual human rights…[and] an information asymmetry…puts AI developers in a more powerful position over those who might use it…(subjects of AI decisions generally have no power.)….
[We’ve] not had a way to assess the value of algorithms against the costs they impose on society….Nearly all of the agencies involved were either unwilling or unable to provide information that could lead to an understanding of how the algorithms worked to decide citizens’ fates….
All of us have the right to question the accuracy and relevance of information used in judicial proceedings and in many other situations….
Of course, human judgment is biased too…[and] professional cultures…had to evolve to address it….Technology companies do not have such a culture….
The truth is that in many cases there are contradictory notions about what it means to be fair…[yet] asked to join in an illusion that [AI] can somehow de-politicize [issues]….Sociologists, historians, political scientists, and above all stakeholders…have a lot to contribute to the debate….
[AI] paints a veneer of science that tries to dole out apolitical solutions to difficult questions…[but] the negative externalities from the use of AI are not borne by the companies developing it….
[We] address this situation with government regulation…because it creates a future cost to society…[and] most basic assurances of algorithmic accountability are not guaranteed for either users of technology or the subjects of automated decision making…[so] can’t leave it to companies to police themselves…[because] attitude of doing what you think is best and apologizing later….
Even if well-intentioned, the…developers writing the code don’t have the training or…inclination to think about these issues….[and] requiring computer scientists to double major in moral philosophy isn’t practical….
With machine learning, they can’t be sure what discriminatory features the system might learn….
Accountability and transparency are paramount to safely using AI…[and] regulation should allow adopters to understand the effects of errors…[so] stakeholders make informed decisions about appropriate risks and trade-offs….
[Today] uses of AI are getting ahead of its capabilities.”
https://techcrunch.com/2019/08/25/the-risks-of-amoral-a-i/
It’s Time to Get Serious about Tick-Borne Diseases —
“[T]he number of Lyme disease cases has doubled since 2004…[with] over 400,000…[infected] in backyards and on playgrounds, while walking their dog or visiting a park…[and] 10 to 20 percent stay sick for a year…5 percent still suffering 15 years later…[with] brain inflammation, nerve damage and ‘severe’ functional impairment [documented]…[often] denied insurance reimbursement….
We must build an infrastructure to attack the illness….For ticks, ‘proven and scalable control measures do not exist’….
[2017] West Nile virus…infects about 2,000 people annually in the U.S. received $42 million in support…[but] Lyme disease, with 20 times the number…got half as much…[and] changed little in a decade….
[When] Zika virus emerged in 2016, Congress appropriated $1.1 billion…with just seven…cases reported in the U.S. in 2017…[yet] 42,700 Lyme disease cases were reported, about a tenth of what the CDC suspects the actual toll….
Lyme disease…only a part of the problem…[as] funding has been paltry and static…[and] ranks of the infected [grow]….[Prevention] failed.” https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/its-time-to-get-serious-about-tick-borne-diseases/
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Doc Huston
