News — At The Edge — 1/4

Civilization had a rough decade — unraveling, trade war & technology — and beyond new technologies, the next decade may be worse.

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The 2010s were the decade of … what, exactly? —

1. “ Unraveling…began with the tea party…nominally against taxes and government but really…against the first African American president…[while] second half of the decade was a time of rage and increasing division as white men…felt threatened by women and racial and religious minorities….[T]his shattered our sense of a shared American identity…[but] inevitable. America wasn’t a true democracy….

• The rise of social media…proved ruinous to traditional media and…any sense of a shared, objective truth. It gave rise to demagoguery, gave an edge to authoritarianism and…gave legitimacy and power to the most…hate-filled and paranoid elements of society….
• America turned inward, against immigrants, against racial and religious minorities, against longtime allies. Our politics became paralyzed…. Our institutions…[and] norms were shattered….

2. Sharing…our brains to the masses, or at least…thousand or so folks…observing our lives…[and] started to treat mundanities as…full-frontal confessionalism to a country full of emotional voyeurs.

• Twitter exists…[to] tell people what we’re thinking in real time; Instagram…[to] show them…[and] identity politics‘ became a stock phrase…[Painful] things got shared along with all the inanity….
• [W]e soon found…platforms were letting third parties see it…shoving us into silos…[and] dividing us.
• The Internet…let despots restrict information…[and] overwhelming the citizenry with content…until what was real and where all the fakery was coming was nearly impossible for anyone to sort out….

3. Anxiety…in which we lost not simply a shared sense of purpose but a shared sense of reality….

• Police shootings of unarmed African American youths raised…questions about criminal justice…
• [The] unyielding, systemic racism unleashed by opportunistic demagogues and social-media-fueled white resentment, a right-wing populist backlash threatened democratic institutions…[and] learned not to trust what we heard from a president…[or] saw on new media awash….
• U.S. retrenchment ushered in a heyday for authoritarian aggressors and a dismal period for international human rights and press freedom….
• Social media, a globalized economy and technological innovation were supposed to make us feel more connected and empowered. Instead we feel alienated, suspicious and angry at the serial outrages that bombard us minute by minute….

4. Dissonance…became more difficult to ignore…as market reports blared the news of stock markets hitting high after high, we still felt under siege — medical bills mounted, or…manifested in an obsession with inequality, from Occupy Wall Street at the decade’s beginning to socialism’s surge at its end….

• Silicon Valley…new options felt worse than whatever we had been doing before…[with] time on ‘social’ media…[experience as] one of isolation and distance.
• As our reality and expectations continued to diverge, so did the various ways we tried to rationalize the disconnect….

5. Ouroboros…[as] everything…fanned your fears or affirmed your suspicions or tugged at your tender feelings…[to carom] from outrage to horror to vindication….

• We started either not to notice that the Internet was not real life, or the Internet became real life…[about] where you went to think and see what to think. It began to eat itself, a 21st-century version of that ancient serpent swallowing its own tail…

6. Retreat…[with] end of the American century…Americans tired of shaping the world order…[whose] heyday was the 1950s and 1960s…and seem vindicated by the Soviet Union’s collapse….

• Victory was declared prematurely…among other factors is the rise of China…military engagements…[are too] expensive and bloody, and trade threatens many U.S. industries.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/26/s-were-decade-what-exactly-six-columnists-tell-us/?arc404=true

Tariffs contribute to job losses in American manufacturing, Fed report —

“[Trump] insisted that tariffs would be a boon to U.S. factories…[but] Federal Reserve…[says] led to job losses in the manufacturing sector and higher prices for producers and consumers…[and] a drag on employment and…failed to increase output….

[N]o modern episodes of a large, advanced economy raising tariffs in a way comparable to the U.S. in 2018–2019’….

[Study] found that the tariffs implemented in 2018 alone cost Americans a collective $1.4 billion each month….

[Trump] argued that making imported raw materials and finished goods more expensive will drive production back to the U.S….[Fed] found the complexity and global scope of…industrial supply chains make it nearly impossible for multinational manufacturers to respond this way…[so] the biggest casualties has been manufacturing jobs….

Some American manufacturers…[did] boost their domestic market share, but the trade-off was higher production costs, since tariffs were applied on many foreign-made industrial inputs and raw materials, as well as reduced competitiveness in foreign markets….

[Thus] companies or retail consumers, wind up paying more in two ways: Higher input costs get passed through the supply chain, and a reduction in foreign competition prompts American companies to raise prices….

[Tariffs] made American-made products more expensive — and less competitive — overseas in two ways. Higher input costs…[and] tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs imposed in response by other countries….

Due to the decades-long supply chain optimization…multinational manufacturers…[developed] any such changes would take considerable time and expense to implement…[because] no trained labor supply or ready access to raw materials anywhere else around the globe….

’It’s very clear that when executives are faced with tariffs, they don’t invest’…[so] manufacturing employment growth has lagged behind the broader economy to a significant degree since the tariff war began….

’The core economic thinking of…[Trump] is of 1950s…doesn’t reflect the interconnected world…[so] when you impose tariffs on…industry that has lots of international connections, it’s going to backfire.” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/tariffs-contribute-job-losses-american-manufacturing-fed-report-shows-n1108651

Recession, robots and rockets: another roaring 20s for world markets? —

“[Investors] go into the new decade…[after] stocks add over $25 trillion in value in the past 10 years…$13 trillion worth of bond yields below zero…[and] internet-based firms transform the way humans work, shop and relax….

Could we see a repeat of the roaring twenties?….

[A] recession looks inevitable…[but] solutions may need to be unconventional…[so] ‘seems inevitable that a world of helicopter money awaits’…[or] modern monetary theory, when governments create and spend as much money as needed, so long as inflation stays low….

A decade of rock-bottom interest rates didn’t revive growth…[but] inflated markets…for bonds, equities and real estate….The inequality they spawned…triggered a widespread backlash against globalization….

Carbon emissions, temperatures, sea levels and thus climate-induced poverty and immigration are expected to rise….

By 2030, over 80s will represent 5.4% of the U.S. population, up from 3.7% in 2015….

’Immortality may prove the most interesting secular theme in the 2020s’…[plus] smart cities, where big data and robotics ensure better governance, health and connectivity…[and] advances in rocket and satellite technology are opening…access to the final frontier.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-outlook-2030-analysis/recession-robots-and-rockets-another-roaring-20s-for-world-markets-idUSKBN1YV0QQ

Our Twilight Zone & What Comes Next *

Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2019 —

1. “Environment : Bioplastics Could Solve a Major Pollution Problem….Our civilization is built on plastics….Yet less than 15 percent of it gets recycled…. Biodegradable plastics…[use] cellulose and lignin…from nonfood plants, such as giant reed, grown on marginal land…or from waste wood and agricultural by-products….
2. Engineering : Social Robots Play Nicely…penetrating deeper into our lives….[The] field seems to have reached a tipping point, with bots having greater interactive capabilities and performing more useful tasks…[and] respond in ways that seem lifelike….Advances in AI have enabled designers to translate…psychological and neuroscientific insights into algorithms that allow robots to recognize voices, faces and emotions; interpret speech and gestures; respond appropriately to complex verbal and nonverbal cues; make eye contact; speak conversationally; and adapt to people’s needs by learning from feedback, rewards and criticisms….
3. Engineering : Tiny Lenses…could replace bulky glass for manipulating light…[in] microscopes and other laboratory tools, as well as of consumer products…[and] lower the cost of optical components…[to] make their way into smaller, easier-to-manufacture sensors, diagnostic tools such as endoscopic imaging devices, and optical fibers….
4. Medical & Biotech : A Special Class of Proteins Offers Promising Targets for Drugs for Cancer and Alzheimer’s…[called] ‘intrinsically disordered proteins’ (IDPs) looked different…[and] have been called undruggable….[Now] to identify compounds that inhibit these proteins, and some have emerged as bona fide drug candidates….
5. Environment : Smarter Fertilizers Can Reduce Environmental Contamination…[yet] deliver nourishment on demand. To feed the world’s growing population, farmers need to increase crop yields…[with] more ecologically sound — controlled-release fertilizers…so that they alter nutrient-release rates in desired ways as the soil’s temperature, acidity or moisture changes….[Now] manufacturers can make fertilizers that have profiles tailored to the needs of specific crops or growing conditions….[All] part of a sustainable…agriculture known as precision farming…combining data analytics, artificial intelligence and various sensor systems…and by deploying autonomous vehicles to deliver nutrients in prescribed amounts and locations….
6. Computing : Collaborative Telepresence Could Render Distance (Relatively) Meaningless….Telecom companies are rolling out 5G networks fast enough to handle masses of data from advanced sensor arrays without lag times…[and] haptic sensors that make it possible to feel what their robotic avatars touch….
7. Public Health : Advanced Food Tracking and Packaging Will Save Lives and Cut Waste…[helping] 600 million people suffer food poisoning every year…and 420,000 die….[A] pair of technologies could reduce both food poisoning and food waste….[Blockchain] to solve the traceability problem. Enhanced food packaging…providing new ways to determine whether foods have been stored at proper temperatures and whether they might have begun to spoil….By integrating growers, distributors and retailers on a common blockchain…creates a trusted record of a given food’s path through the end-to-end supply chain…[so] retailers and restaurants can remove a contaminated item from circulation virtually immediately….[New] small sensors that can monitor the quality and safety of food in pallets, cases or individually wrapped products…[to] reveal the gaseous by-products of spoilage…[and] reduce waste by showing that a food is safe to eat….
8. Energy : Safer Nuclear Reactors Are on the Way…[with] development of so-called accident-tolerant fuels…[and] could help plants run more efficiently, making nuclear power more cost-competitive….Russia and China are building aggressively….Improved fuels and growth in small reactors could be a big part of a nuclear power rebirth.
9. Medical & Biotech : DNA Data Storage Is Closer….In 2020 an estimated 1.7 megabytes of data will be created per second per person globally….[DNA] is life’s information-storage material….[Data] is already routinely sequenced (read), synthesized (written to) and accurately copied with ease…is incredibly stable…storing it does not require much energy…[and] can accurately stow massive amounts of data at a density far exceeding that of electronic devices…[so] all the world’s current storage needs for a year could be well met by a cube of DNA measuring about one meter on a side….Recent advancements in…sequencing techniques allow for…bar coding…as molecular identification ‘tags’….[This] will almost certainly be used for generating information at entirely new scales and preserving certain types of data over the long term.
10. Energy : Utility-Scale Energy Storage Will Enable a Renewable Grid…driven by both the increased urgency of decarbonizing energy systems and the plummeting costs of wind and solar technology….[The] need is increasing interest in energy-storage…in particular, lithium-ion batteries…[where] the cost of electricity…has dropped by 76 percent since 2012, making them…competitive with…natural gas…[and] dominant technology for the next five to 10 years.” https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2019/

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Doc Huston