Augmented Knowledge Systems, Yes. Mass Genetic Engineering, Not Happening.
This article reflects linear trend projections, wishful thinking, and misunderstanding of the zeitgeist in multiple ways.
- You “argue that machines just do what they are programmed to do,” so they will not be dangerous. That is inaccurate. You need to understand both nonlinearity and goal orientation (e.g., paperclip problem). Try reading Barrat, “Our Final Invention.”
- You ask, “Will we be wise enough to put some safeguards on and anticipate threats.” Even if we were that wise (and there is no evidence of that), all technology presents a double-edged sword. (see my article on my Medium publication, A Passion to Evolve, called, Why You Should Fear Artificial Intelligence-AI) Every government on the planet is racing to be first in AI (i.e., AGI) because they fear there will be no second place.
- You say, “Our collective intelligence is still ‘human intelligence.” To the extent that is true, it is tribal and primitive (see my articles, Doc Says — Our Emotions, Institutions and Technological Capabilities Are Mismatched and Our Human Stain).
- You say, “Tools for genetic manipulation will be commoditized very soon,” and “we got used to abortions.” Both statements are misleading. Supreme Court decision making abortion legal under some circumstances was in 1973 (43 years ago). Court challenges, legislation at all government levels, in many, if not most countries, has not abated in any way. We also have similar issues with stem cells, euthanasia, recreational drugs, GMO crops, etc. All these tools are common yet anchored in endless political and legal debate (see my article, Only 6 Possible Outcomes in Next 20 Years [ — 4 are Bad — ]).
We will create augmented knowledge systems (see Reducing Education & Knowledge Gaps or and Doc says — We’re Approaching An Autodidactic World.
Still, it does not follow that, “We’ll soon be able to fully take control of our own evolution and the only thing that will stop us will be our ethics.” There is a medieval political system that is in control (see, A Message From the Bow of Civilization).
Finally, a professional “futurist” focuses on a set of outcomes and their probability based on a reliable methodology. You should be interested in a longish, but readable and detailed picture of our real possible outcomes in my article, Macroscopic Evolutionary Paradigm.
Doc Huston
